Here's a dead simple splunkd health check. It uses an auth token returned by splunkd's login endpoint to double check daemon health. (excuse my awk ignorance)

SPL_USER="admin";
SPL_PASS="xxx";
STATUS="err";
TOKEN=$(curl --max-time 60 -f -o /dev/null -s -k -u $SPL_USER:$SPL_PASS -d username=$SPL_USER -d password=$SPL_PASS https://localhost:8089/services/auth/login|egrep '<sessionKey>[[:alnum:]]+</sessionKey>'|awk -F'>' '{print $2}'|awk -F'<' '{print $1}');
curl --max-time 60 -f -o /dev/null -s -k -u $SPL_USER:$SPL_PASS https://localhost:8089/services/authentication/httpauth-tokens/$TOKEN;
[[ $? == 0 ]] && STATUS="ok";
logger -p local1.debug -t splunkd_auth_status $STATUS

I've intentionally left the semicolon at the end of each line for one reason: This entire script can be concatinated into a single line and executed via crontab:

*/5 * * * * SPL_USER="admin";SPL_PASS="xxx";STATUS="err";TOKEN=$(...

This command will print a line similar to this when there's an error:

Apr  4 05:55:01 domU-12-31-39-00-E5-32 splunkd_auth_status: err

Using a Splunk Saved Search with Alerting, you could easily match this event and trigger and alert.

Alternatively, if you're using Cloudkick you could change the logger call at the end of this command to a simple echo:

echo "status $STATUS"